A CREB® 2018 Calgary Economic & Housing Outlook Mid-Year Update Summary

Stricter lending conditions, a rise in interest rates, persistently high unemployment and slow economic recovery have weighed on housing demand so far this year.

A closer look at the numbers behind Calgary's apartment-style housing market

Statistics Canada recently released an interesting piece of information regarding Calgary's residential real estate market that went relatively unnoticed.

According to the government agency, the share of households in the Calgary census metropolitan area living in condominiums was 21.8 per cent in 2016. That represented the second highest percentage in the country, behind only Vancouver at 30.6 per cent, and was much higher than the national average of 13.3 per cent.

Prices remain similar to last year, but ease in October

October's housing market conditions closely echoed previous months' trends, with easing sales, rising inventories and downward price pressure. Like last month, the monthly activity was not enough to derail gains that occurred earlier in the year.

Inventory increases and sales drop in September, but overall sales for the year remain higher than last year

Strong gains in the first half of 2017 have put Calgary year-to-date sales at seven per cent above last years' levels and 11 per cent below long-term averages, but challenges remain with easing sales and rising new listings.

Inventories rose across all property types to 6,861 units, while both apartment- and attached-style properties saw the highest inventory on record for the month of September.

Thinking long-term puts Calgary's housing market in perspective

Real estate is a numbers game, and looking at those numbers over an extended period truly does shine a light on the performance of a market over the long-term.

From that perspective, home prices in Calgary have been very impressive.

CREB® forecasts a process of recovery for the remainder of 2017

The first-half of 2017 marked a shift in Alberta's economy from recession to recovery, with conditions supporting stability rather than expansion.

"Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017."

High supply in Calgary's condo market continues to push down prices

Calgary's condominium market continues to see the supply of available product overwhelm buyer demand, meaning owners looking to sell need to consider ways to set their unit apart from the crowd.

According to CREB®'s 2017 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Mid-Year Update, the condo market has seen a slight rise in year-to-date sales over 2016, but not enough to keep pace with a rise in listings, up an average of nine per cent over last year.

That increased supply is putting downward pressure on prices, which are expected to continue to decrease during the rest of the year for an annual forecasted decline of three per cent.

How economic indicators actually drive the housing market

What do unemployment, migration and oil prices have in common? Apart from being touchy subjects at a party, they all influence the Calgary housing market to some extent. Understanding how and why that happens could provide an advantage when planning a home sale or purchase.

"In many cases the impact is indirect," said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for CREB®.

One part of that impact relates to demand.

Market sees modest inventory gains, but overall prices inch up 

Sales exhibited stable growth through the first half of the year in the Calgary housing market, but the number of transactions slowed slightly in July compared to last year.

Citywide sales totaled 1,637 units, six per cent below July 2016 levels. Year-to-date sales activity totaled 11,957 units, nine per cent above last year.

"Sales growth exceeded expectations so far this year. Clients were re-entering the market after delaying decisions until there were some signs of economic improvement," said CREB® president David P. Brown.

Demand for detached housing continues to rise

The detached housing market continues to lead the way in Calgary's slow but steady recovery from a two-year recession. It is the fourth consecutive month of price increases in this segment of the market.

For the first time since June 2015, prices for detached homes did not decline on a year-over-year basis. Unadjusted detached benchmark prices reached $509,000 in May – one per cent higher than last month and levels recorded last year.

Detached sales improved across all price ranges and represented 65 per cent of all Calgary sales in May, the highest level since 2012. The largest detached sales growth occurred in the $600,000 - $999,999 range.