Analysts say indicators point to prolonged downturn

The health of Calgary's residential housing market is only as good as the foundation it's built upon, say analysts, who reference several key indicators that point to a prolonged downturn in the city.

Richard Cho, principal market analysis in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), noted everything from employment levels to household income and migration to spending levels signal to tough times ahead for the local housing market.

Shared-equity housing and other programs are creating solutions to the city's affordable housing crisis

Affordable housing advocates say more moderate population growth this year will not be enough to break down barriers to homeownership that many Calgarians continue to face.

Calgary Homeless Foundation vice-president of strategy Kevin McNichol said the housing market still cannot keep up with demand, with historically high prices prohibiting many people from owning a home of their own.

In late December, more than 3,600 people were on the Calgary Housing Company's wait list for subsidized and affordable housing units — the largest number of Calgarians waiting for a home since March 2012.

Calgary vacancy rate could go even higher in 2016, say experts

Renters in Calgary stand to gain the most from the energy sector's misfortune, with vacancy rates expected to increase after already jumping almost five-fold over the past year.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) Fall Market Report released in early December, Calgary's vacancy rate rose from 1.4 per cent in fall 2014 to 5.3 per cent in October 2015.

The national average was 3.3 per cent.

"We expect the vacancy rate to edge even higher in 2016," said CMHC principal of market analysis Richard Cho. "And with higher vacancy rates, tenants will have more choice in the market and landlords will have to do more to attract renters, naturally putting more downward pressure on rents.

Global glut for oil means Alberta economy is expected to struggle in 2016 – and Calgary's housing market along with it

Alberta's energy sector has only felt the tip of the blade, say experts, who anticipate the worse is still to come.

"Unfortunately, the story is not positive – and it's not over for Calgary by any stretch of the imagination," said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

"I think that 2015 was just the pre-show, and we're going to see most of the damage, at least, in the first of half of 2016."

Experts believe higher-priced home market is not out for the count

Despite ongoing oil patch uncertainty that plagued the province's economy for much of 2014, Calgary's luxury housing market is still alive and well, say industry insiders.

While experts acknowledge the sector is going through a rough patch, they say the industry is undaunted, instead pushing ahead in hopes that Alberta's infamous cyclical economy is due for another upswing.

White-knuckle ride likely isn't over yet

Only a short while ago it was hard to find a place to rent in Calgary. How things have changed.

Calgary's rental market has been a rollercoaster ride since oil prices began to fall in late 2014. The vacancy rate for purpose-built rentals was 5.3 per cent this past October, based on numbers released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) in mid-December. That's almost a 400 per cent increase from October the previous year, when the vacancy rate was 1.4 per cent.

"Obviously, a big part of that is due to a change in the economy," said Richard Cho, principal market analyst for Calgary with CMHC.

A look back at Calgary's resale residential housing market

If nothing else, 2015 was an interesting year for Calgary's housing market.

While it remained resilient even while oil prices began to slide, the conditions that arose as 2014 drew to a close signaled a change was in the air.

And so as Christmas came and went, December 2014 saw the first year-year-year sales decline following 11 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. And with little expectation that things would change, once-lofty expectations gave way to a more realistic outlook.

Overseas condo ownership ramps up in Calgary

Foreign ownership is picking up in Calgary's housing market, according to a new report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC).

Late last week, the federal housing agency noted foreign ownership in Calgary's condo apartment sector has increased from just 0.2 per cent of the total market in 2014 to 1.1 per cent in 2015.

While it's a far cry from the level of ownership seen in markets such as Vancouver and Toronto, the rise in Calgary still represents a five-fold increase.

Yearly update on the local and national housing markets

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has issued its outlook on the local and national housing markets. Detailing several factors impacting Canada's housing market -- both new and resale - CMHC's numbers provide a basis for what to expect heading into the remainder of 2015 into 2016 and beyond.

To help provide a little more understanding, CREB®Now digs a little deeper into CMHC's Outlook.

By the numbers

Deciphering all the information coming out of Calgary's housing market can be difficult at the best of times. And with the number of homes changing hands under more scrutiny than ever, it's a good time to dig a little deeper.

CREB®Now takes a look at five figures surrounding Calgary's housing market.

$7.9 billion
Through the first 10 months of 2015, the total value of Calgary homes sold in the city sits at 7.9 billion. While still a staggering figure, the number is already $3 billion shy of the value of homes sold through the first 10 months last year, a drop of 39.2 per cent.