CREB® forecasts a process of recovery for the remainder of 2017

The first-half of 2017 marked a shift in Alberta's economy from recession to recovery, with conditions supporting stability rather than expansion.

"Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017."

Report notes mortgage lending rule changes could spell trouble for city's housing market

Recent changes by the federal government to mortgage lending rules will likely serve as headwinds for the city's recovering real estate market in the coming year, said CREB® in its 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Forecast.

Since 2008, the federal government has been tightening mortgage lending rules.

Real estate veteran to take reins of member organization

The New Year will welcome a new president for CREB® and its 5,200-plus members as local real estate veteran David P. Brown takes the reins during what's expected to be a year of transition for the industry.

CREB®Now caught up with Brown to talk about everything from his financial background to what advice he has for prospective homebuyers.

CREA expects sales to struggle to maintain traction in 20016-17

MLS® sales in Alberta are expected to increase for the balance of the year due to better-than-expected activity during the second quarter and health levels heading into the third quarter, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) in its revised 2016 forecast.

The national REALTOR® agency added, however, that the current economic climate suggests Alberta sales may struggle to maintain traction over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.

Alberta sales activity is expected to finish the year down 8.8 per cent to 51,500 transactions - the largest decline in the country as the province's economy struggles with a sluggish energy industry.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to rise by six per cent to 535,900 units in 2016, which is little changed from CREA's previously predicted sales increase of 6.1 per cent to 536,400 units this year. This represents a new record for annual sales.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

CMHC forecasts slowdown in new home construction

Calgary housing starts are forecast to decline for the second consecutive year in 2016, according to a new report.

In its semi-annual housing market outlook released today, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) noted reduced investments and layoffs in the energy industry due to low oil prices have spread and have impacted labour market conditions across many different industries. Elevated unemployment rates will slow down migration and income growth, while employment is expected to decline. As a result, housing demand will continue to deteriorate this year.

This, combined with a rise in inventory, will reduce the pace of new home construction. Total housing starts in 2016 will range between 8,400 and 9,400 units, down from 13,033 units in 2015.

CMHC expects renters to benefit from soft economic conditions

Rental vacancy rates in Calgary will rise to seven per cent by this fall, up from 5.3 per cent during the same time last year, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

In its semi-annual housing market outlook released today, CMHC said two-bedroom rents are forecast to average $1,270 in October 2016, compared to $1,332 in October 2015.

"A rise in the purpose-built rental vacancy rate along will additional options in the secondary rental market will put downward pressure on rents this year," said the report. "Although incentives will continue to be offered, some landlords will also lower rents to attract tenants."

By the fall of 2017, CMHC expects the vacancy rate in the city to decline back to 5.5 per cent. The two-bedroom rent, meanwhile, is forecast to average $1,260.

CMHC report forecasts buyers' conditions will continue in 2016/17

Calgary housing prices will continue to decline in 2016, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), which predicts the average MLS® residential price in the city will range between $444,500 and $449,500, compared to $453,814 in 2015.

In its semi-annual housing market outlook, released today, CMHC also said it detected moderate evidence of overvaluation as house prices have not been fully supported by economic and demographic fundamentals.

In 2017, house prices in the resale market are anticipated to gradually stabilize as the market shifts to more balanced levels. Improvements in economic conditions and housing demand combined with less supply will help support home prices, said CMHC.

The MLS® average residential price in 2017 is forecast to range from $450,400 to $455,600.

Industry welcomes influx of rental units coming on stream

An increase in the number of purpose-built rentals coming onto the market over the next few years is good for Calgary and the communities they reside in over the long run, say experts

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC's) Fall 2015 Rental Market Report for Calgary, 1,216 apartment rental units were under construction as of September 2015, a 53 per cent increase from the year before.

This comes after purpose-built rental apartments increased for the second consecutive year in 2015. CMHC reports 865 purpose-built rental units came on the Calgary market in 2015, bringing the total number of such units in the city up to 35,227.