The health of Calgary's commercial real estate market is often defined by what's happening with the city's downtown office space, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

The vibrancy of Calgary's downtown office market is a good indicator of the health of the city's economy, and since the oil price collapse that started in the latter half of 2014, they've both been struggling.

Downtown office market begins bounce back

People who have lived and worked in Calgary for a long time know that the downtown office market is a great barometer of what's happening in the city's overall economy.

For the past couple of years, record vacancy rates in the heart of the city have made headline news, not only in Calgary, but nationally.

However, a recent report by commercial real estate firm Avison Young suggests we've hit the bottom and there's nowhere to go but up.

Calgary's commercial real estate market could be poised for a rebound in 2018

All eyes will be on Calgary's commercial real estate market this year, with hopes that the downtown office sector, which continued to struggle in 2017, will rebound in 2018.

The office market has grabbed everyone's attention over the past three years, as vacancy rates have soared to historically high levels following the collapse of oil prices and the subsequent waves of layoffs that ravaged employment ranks in downtown Calgary. Thousands of people were cut loose, and a vast amount of office space suddenly became vacant in the downtown core.

Real estate officials expect conditions to support turnaround in downtrodden commercial market

Calgary's commercial real estate market is showing signs it is finally moving on from tough economic conditions that sent vacancy rates soaring and rents plummeting over the past two years, say officials.

''There is a sense in the market that the worst is behind us and that conditions will gradually improve," said Joe Binfet, managing director/broker of Colliers International in Calgary.

Commercial market outside the core still active

Calgary's suburban commercial market is bucking the trend and chugging along in the face of Alberta's current economic downturn, say industry experts.

"The perception is that all commercial real estate is facing challenging times, but the reality is our industrial market and our suburban office market and our retail market are very resilient," said Colliers International managing director and broker Joe Binfet.

"And, while I wouldn't say robust, I would say active."

By the numbers

With much of the news coming out of Calgary's commercial market negative, especially for many of those that once toiled away in one of the city's many office towers, the future of downtown Calgary is, in many ways, up in the air. Adding to the uncertainty are several new office towers set to be added to downtown Calgary in the coming months. CREB®Now looks at some of the numbers coming out of Calgary's evolving skyline.

16%
Inversely tied to the declining price of oil, the vacancy rate in Calgary's office market has increased from around six per cent in 2014 to a once unfathomable 18 per cent in 2016, according to commercial real estate firm Colliers International.

Commercial vacancy rates represent market outlook

Nearly one out of five floors in the office towers that make up Calgary's famous skyline now sit empty, according to CBRE, which anticipates vacancy rates to increase further in 2016.

"Oil and gas companies on every level – from junior start-up to intermediate to major companies – everyone has gone through some form of layoff and therefore and have excess space," said Greg Kwong, managing director at the commercial real estate services firm.

Calgary's downtown office market ended 2015 with vacancy rates topping 17.4 per cent – nearly double from 9.8 per cent in 2014, according to CBRE's 2016 Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook.

Vacancy rates spike as downturn makes its presence felt

Calgary's commercial sector has not been spared from prevalent weakness in the provincial economy, with prime spaces in the city left empty for most of 2015.

Vacancy rates in Calgary's commercial office sector increased by 5.8 per cent from the beginning of the year to the end, noted commercial real estate firm Avison Young. In downtown specifically, vacancy jumped 7.2 per cent, which accounted for approximately three million square feet.

In comparison, office vacancy rates tripled from four to nearly 12 per cent during the last economic downturn in 2008/09.

Calgary's core office market could see vacancy increases that endure even after a recovery in oil prices

According to a new report from commercial real estate firm Cushman and Wakefield, the negative effects of the drop in oil prices could remain for up to a year after a rebound.

"Although the brunt of the declining oil price was felt in Q1 2015, it is expected that negative absorption will continue throughout 2015," said the report.

"Net rates will drop in the CBD (central business district), while the suburbs will be impacted to a lesser extent. History would suggest that we can expect tenants to begin taking back space once oil prices strengthen and the market regains confidence."