The Bank of Canada announced on April 15 that it would keep its overnight rate target at 0.25 per cent and that no additional rate cuts should be expected.

This decision to hold rates steady came on the heels of three rate cuts in over a month, as the COVID-19 pandemic and plummeting oil prices exact a heavy toll on the Canadian economy.

CREB^®Now sat down with CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie to discuss takeaways and surprises from the 2019 housing market in Calgary and area.

Net migration figures point to housing market bounce back

It's been a challenging year for Calgary's resale housing market, which is still feeling the effects of two recession years in 2015 and 2016.

While the economy has rebounded, it has been at a slow pace, and this has been evident in the real estate industry. As of the end of June, year-to-date MLS® System sales in the resale market totalled 8,553 units, down 17.1 per cent in the city compared with the same period a year ago.

Downtown office market begins bounce back

People who have lived and worked in Calgary for a long time know that the downtown office market is a great barometer of what's happening in the city's overall economy.

For the past couple of years, record vacancy rates in the heart of the city have made headline news, not only in Calgary, but nationally.

However, a recent report by commercial real estate firm Avison Young suggests we've hit the bottom and there's nowhere to go but up.

The arrow is pointing upwards for Calgary housing market as recovery continues

It's been a tough couple of years for Calgary's housing market, as it slowly recovers from the collapse of oil prices that started in 2014.

That pain created some deep wounds for the city's economy, which shed thousands of jobs and plunged into a recession for both 2015 and 2016. The light at the end of the tunnel began to materialize this year, and the recovery is expected to fully take hold in 2018.

That's good news for the real estate market, as job growth will fuel demand going forward.

Yearly update on the local and national housing markets

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has issued its outlook on the local and national housing markets. Detailing several factors impacting Canada's housing market -- both new and resale - CMHC's numbers provide a basis for what to expect heading into the remainder of 2015 into 2016 and beyond.

To help provide a little more understanding, CREB®Now digs a little deeper into CMHC's Outlook.

Housing demand expected to weaken

Mike Dunn moved to Calgary from Edmonton in July. He'd been thinking for a while about relocating, but when a friend offered him an affordable place to stay, he decided to take the plunge.

"It was like walking into a hurricane, to land here during Stampede, but it was good," he said with a laugh. "It seems like a place where if you work hard, you can pull off a decent living."

Dunn's not the first to switch area codes – and he won't be the last.

But he does represent a smaller number, as net migration — the difference between the number of people who have moved to Calgary, compared to the number who have moved away from the city — is at its lowest since 2011.

Today, CREB® unveiled its 2015 mid-year forecast update that indicated the Calgary regional resale housing market is in for a turbulent ride over the second half of the year as some economic realities set in.

Here are five takeaways from the 24-page document:

Not just a drop in the bucket
CREB®, citing a number of economists, warns that the broader effects of oil price shocks have yet to be fully realized in both the energy and non-energy sectors. Oil prices are expected to average $55 US per barrel, which is nearly 13 per cent lower than expectations from the end of 2014. What that means is all sectors, including housing, will likely face more downward pressure heading into 2016.

Weaker resale demand
Despite more favourable lending rates, housing demand will be weaker than we've have become used to. CREB® attributes that to further job losses expected this fall, rising unemployment levels and weaker migration numbers to the city. Overall, sales activity in the city is forecasted to decline by 22 per cent to 19,798 units in 2015 and prices will contract by 0.2 per cent.

How the future of oil and gas in Alberta will affect Calgary's housing market

The plummeting price of oil is unlikely to affect Calgary's housing market in the immediate future, but a prolonged slump could eventually leave its mark on the local landscape, say Canadian economists.

"If the recent slide in oil prices turns down the migration taps, construction activity could begin to soften again in Calgary," said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic, noting that, in the interim, Calgary's housing market remains red hot.