The COVID-19 vaccine rollout, a rosier economy and the opening of post-secondary institutions to in-person classes could all improve Calgary's residential rental vacancy rate by as early as this fall.

That's the prediction of industry watchers for a rental market that currently sits at a vacancy high of 6.6 per cent, although steady average monthly rents continue to be made even more attractive for renters by incentive offerings.

Total residential sales in August were relatively stable compared to last year with year-over-year gains in the detached and row sectors.

The health of Calgary's commercial real estate market is often defined by what's happening with the city's downtown office space, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

How economic indicators actually drive the housing market

What do unemployment, migration and oil prices have in common? Apart from being touchy subjects at a party, they all influence the Calgary housing market to some extent. Understanding how and why that happens could provide an advantage when planning a home sale or purchase.

"In many cases the impact is indirect," said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for CREB®.

One part of that impact relates to demand.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

New report paints mid-term picture

RBC Economics economist Craig Wright and Robert Hogue say the provincial recession continues to weigh on housing demand in Calgary, and such weakness is increasingly undermining prices.

In the bank's Canadian Housing Health Check released this week, the report's authors note the drop in property values has been generally modest to date; however, the pace of decline has accelerated and further downside remains.

Here are five things to know about contributors to Calgary's housing health so far this year:

Unemployment impacting housing activity

Home prices declined further in March as economic conditions weigh on Calgary's housing market, according to CREB®, which released its monthly housing summary today.

Calgary's benchmark price totaled $442,800 in March, a 0.49 per cent decline over February and 3.51 per cent lower than levels recorded last year.

"With no improvement in the labour market, it's no surprise that we continue to face downward pressure on housing sales activity and prices," said CREB® chief economist Ann- Marie Lurie.

White-knuckle ride likely isn't over yet

Only a short while ago it was hard to find a place to rent in Calgary. How things have changed.

Calgary's rental market has been a rollercoaster ride since oil prices began to fall in late 2014. The vacancy rate for purpose-built rentals was 5.3 per cent this past October, based on numbers released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) in mid-December. That's almost a 400 per cent increase from October the previous year, when the vacancy rate was 1.4 per cent.

"Obviously, a big part of that is due to a change in the economy," said Richard Cho, principal market analyst for Calgary with CMHC.

High rents, job losses contributing to lease breaks, defaults

As the torrential storm of job losses in the province escalates, Calgary's rental community is beginning to feel the fallout.

Rental management groups in the city are reporting a higher incidence of lease breaks and defaults on rent this year as energy sector woes reverberate throughout the economy.

"We've certainly had to do a lot more of this recently than in years' past," said Brett Turner, owner of Redline Real Estate Group Inc., which manages a multitude of rental properties from single-family homes to small apartment buildings.

"We've seen significantly more lease breaks and defaults on rents than ever before."

Mary Moran has taken over the reins as president and chief executive of Calgary Economic Development (CED).

Moran, who has been with CED since 2010, took some time to chat with CREBNow about Calgary's economic resiliency and what she thinks is the city's best-kept secret.