Dec. 03, 2018 | CREB
Challenging economic conditions continue to impact the resale market
City of Calgary, December 3, 2018 –
Sitting below long-term averages, November sales in the city totaled 1,171 units.
For the year so far, sales activity has totaled 15,349 units, a 14 per cent decline over last year and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.
“Recent challenges in the energy sector have weighed on consumer confidence over the past month. Combined with weakness in the employment market and further gains in lending rates, this is impacting ownership demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
New listings eased by seven per cent in November compared to last year. The adjustment in new listings has helped prevent further inventory gains, with 6,501 units in overall inventory, but levels remain well above the 5,683 units in inventory seen last year and 32 per cent higher than typical levels for November.
“Higher inventories and weaker sales are resulting in buyer’s market conditions and price declines,” said Lurie.
The citywide benchmark price was $422,600 in November, nearly one per cent lower than last month and over three per cent below last year’s levels.
Year-to-date sales have slowed across all price ranges, except product priced below $200,000, which now represents nearly six per cent of all sales. The largest decline in sales has occurred in the $600,000 - $999,9999 range.
“In any market, affordable product is always desirable,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.
“For buyers, it may mean being able to step into a home that was previously unattainable. It also means that sellers need to be keenly aware what is successfully selling in their neighbourhood and surrounding communities.”
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
- Detached sales declined across all districts in November. With citywide sales of 679 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the month.
- New listings eased by three per cent compared to last year, due to declines mostly in the North East, North and South East districts. Year-to-date new listings this year have increased in all areas except the North East and East districts.
- Inventories in the detached sector totaled 3,491 units, 26 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Months of supply sits at five months, well above the three-month typical for November.
- Detached benchmark prices totaled $486,000 in November, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. This is nearly seven per cent below monthly highs recorded in October 2014.
- Prices have eased across all districts in November. On a year-to-date basis, the largest declines this year have occurred in the North East and North districts. This is likely due to the increased competition from the new-home sector. The districts that remain furthest from price recovery are the North West and South districts.
- Despite year-over-year gains in sales in November, citywide apartment sales have totaled 2,557 units so far this year. This is five per cent lower than last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
- The majority of activity in condos is located within the city centre, representing nearly 48 per cent of all the sales activity.
- Following years of oversupply, the number of new listings in the apartment sector continues to ease, helping prevent further significant gains in inventories and even contributing to inventory reductions in the South, East and North East districts.
- Despite some adjustments in inventories, most areas continue to struggle with oversupply, causing further price declines. Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.
- Year-to-date attached sales totaled 3,344 units, a 16 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. Sales activity eased across most districts except for the North East, where sales remained relatively stable because of improvements in row activity.
- Overall, rising new listings continue to place upward pressure on inventory levels and the gains have mostly occurred with semi-detached product.
- Oversupply conditions have weighed on prices. In November, the semi-detached benchmark price totaled $400,700. This is a monthly and year-over year decline of 0.67 and 3.3 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as year-to-date prices remain comparable to 2017 levels.
- Row prices have also been edging down, but at a slower pace than semi-detached product. As of November, row prices were $292,900, a 0.2 per cent decline from last month and just over three per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
- The Airdrie housing market continues to experience declining sales and increasing inventory. Persistently elevated levels of supply have led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
- Year-to-date sales activity in Airdrie has declined year-over-year by 142 units, with current levels at 1,101 units. Levels of new listings are comparable to last year but remain higher than long-term averages.
- Year-to-date average inventory is almost 18 per cent higher than the same period in 2017, keeping average months of supply at around six months. This continued pressure has resulted in a decline in house prices, with year-to-date benchmark value of detached homes now sitting at $342,773, which is a year-over-year decline of nearly two percent.
- Year-to-date, residential sales have declined by 58 units, totalling 573 units so far in 2018. These levels are comparable to similar periods in the past few years and are higher than long-term averages.
- New listings continue to reach historical peaks for each period this year, with levels so far in 2018 being 308 units higher than long-term averages. Months of inventory remain elevated, with year-to-date average inventory levels being 14 per cent higher than in 2017.
- Despite some recent declines, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year.
- Year-to-date residential sales have declined to 449 units in 2018 and are comparable to levels from 2010.
- New listings have remained slightly higher than last year’s levels. Oversupply continues in this market, with year-to-date average inventories being 53 units higher compared to 2017.
- Despite increased supply with weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks show modest increases. Year-to-date, the average detached benchmark price totalled $436,091, 1.5 per cent higher than last year.
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