January market improves over last year

At 4,112 total units, January's inventory was 18 per cent below last year's levels, according to CREB®, which released its monthly housing summary today.

"While housing conditions continue to favour buyers, a slow transition toward more balanced conditions is helping to ease downward pressure on home prices," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "Conditions have improved over last year, but people need to remember that last year's market was one of the weakest on record. Despite the appearance of a major shift in activity, the transition in the housing market is going to be a slow process."

Resiliency in the detached and semi-detached markets temper price fluctuations

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect, reported CREB® in its June housing summary. (Click here for the full report.)

CREB® partly attributed June's stats to resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

"The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "While this is welcomed news for sellers, it's very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve."

April housing sales tell different stories for districts 

While the sun might be shining in Calgary this spring, this city's resale residential housing market was overshadowed by another month of declining sales and prices in April, according to CREB®.

However, despite inclement conditions, some areas of the city and segments of the market emerged as bright spots, with several posting double-digit sales increases, the board reported in its recent monthly housing summary.
Calgary's West district recorded 128 detached sales in April, a nearly 31 per cent increase when compared to last year. It was followed by the North West, which posted a 20 per cent increase in detached sales with 187 units, the North at more than 11 per cent to 166 detached sales and City Centre at nearly four per cent to 111 detached units.

"Our market is incredibly diverse, and these numbers verify that. Different areas and price points have and will continue to react divergently to economic conditions," said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson.

Analysts say indicators point to prolonged downturn

The health of Calgary's residential housing market is only as good as the foundation it's built upon, say analysts, who reference several key indicators that point to a prolonged downturn in the city.

Richard Cho, principal market analysis in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), noted everything from employment levels to household income and migration to spending levels signal to tough times ahead for the local housing market.

Monthly prices decline for fifth consecutive month: CREB

February sales totaled 1,127 units in Calgary, a 6.63 per cent drop over last year and 37 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month, according to CREB®.

In its monthly housing summary, CREB® reported citywide unadjusted benchmark prices totaled $445,000 last month, a 0.63 per cent decline over January and 3.45 per cent lower than levels recorded last year.

"Slow sales and elevated housing inventory has resulted in further price declines," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "Given the current economic environment, it is no surprise that consumer confidence and housing demand is being impacted."

Housing stats indicate some buyers still sitting on the sidelines

Calgary's resale residential housing market picked up where it left off in 2015, with buyers' conditions prevailing through every major category last month, according to CREB®.

Yet with many homebuyers still sitting on the fence, local housing officials caution that historically it's been difficult to find a utopian moment to enter the market.

"Buyers, especially first-time buyers and investors, will do their best to time the bottom, but I think that will be really difficult," said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson, noting that few were able to do so during the last recession in 2008/09 when the upturn happened quickly. "I think this year it will be a guessing game as to when will be the best time to get into the market."

Sales activity remains well below long-term averages  

Elevated inventory levels in October contributed to a second consecutive month of price declines in Calgary's resale residential housing market.

Benchmark prices declined 0.7 per cent from the previous month, and 1.2 per cent from the same time last year, to $453,100.

"Persistent weakness in the overall economy continued to impact housing demand in Calgary as October sales were nearly 16 per cent below long-term averages," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "In addition, new listings did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions."

August sales activity falls below long-term averages

Calgary's residential resale housing market recorded further easing in absorption rates in August due to weaker sales activity.

Sales in the city declined by 27 per cent to 1,643 units last month relative to the same time last year and 12 per cent below 10-year averages.

"Persistent weakness in the energy sector weighed on sales activity this month, which once again retracted to levels well below the norm for the city," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Supply gain in apartment sector threatens to impact price

Declines in residential housing sales activity eased in July, creating, when combined with stable inventory levels, no change to the month-over-month price.

Year-over-year sales fell by 14 per cent to 1,995 units in July, compared to a 17.8 per cent decrease the previous month. Despite the decline, sales activity during the month was consistent with the 10-year average.

While sales decline eased, so too did the decline in new listings, causing the unadjusted sales-to-new listings ratio to edge down to 67 per cent in July and months of supply to increase to 2.53 months.

Several reports have sounded the alarm our real estate market is grossly overvalued, but industry watchers contend Calgary isn't poised for the big crash some are forecasting

Reports suggesting Calgary's housing market is over-valued, supported by recent price corrections, are missing many of the obvious indicators saying otherwise, say experts.

The metrics used to measure affordability simply do not back up the argument that Calgary's real estate market is highly overvalued and ready for a precipitous drop in home values, said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with Economic Research BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

"One of the (metrics) we look at is the average mortgage payment as a share of income, and right now that's a little bit above the long-run norm of 27 per cent at about 29 per cent," he said.