Prices steady, but struggles in Alberta economy weigh on housing

Changes to the lending industry and a challenging economic recovery are weighing on sales activity in Calgary's housing market.

Supply levels have not adjusted to the weaker demand environment, and that is preventing price recovery.

"Slower sales do not come as a surprise, given the economy has not yet improved enough to offset the impact of changes in the lending industry," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"While the rising inventories are being monitored, prices have remained relatively flat as gains in some areas of the city have been offset by declines in other areas."

1988 CREB® president Jerry Roberts recalls Winter Olympics arriving at the right time for Calgarians

Like many Calgarians, the first thing Jerry Roberts remembers about 1988 was the Winter Olympics.

The international sporting event transformed Calgary, as 1,423 athletes from 57 nations competed in 46 events over 16 days in February 1988.

But perhaps more importantly, it put Calgary, then a city of 675,000 and the first Canadian city to host a Winter Olympic Games, on the world map, said Roberts, who was president of CREB® that year.

Smallest year-over-year decline since 2014

Residential resale housing activity declines in the province eased last month, falling by 3.8 per cent to 4,611 units, according to the Alberta Real Estate Association.

The provincial organization noted September represented the smallest year-over-year decline since December 2014.

Meanwhile, the average MLS® residential price in Alberta rose 3.9 per cent from September 2015 to $396,646.

CREA expects sales to struggle to maintain traction in 20016-17

MLS® sales in Alberta are expected to increase for the balance of the year due to better-than-expected activity during the second quarter and health levels heading into the third quarter, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) in its revised 2016 forecast.

The national REALTOR® agency added, however, that the current economic climate suggests Alberta sales may struggle to maintain traction over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.

Alberta sales activity is expected to finish the year down 8.8 per cent to 51,500 transactions - the largest decline in the country as the province's economy struggles with a sluggish energy industry.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to rise by six per cent to 535,900 units in 2016, which is little changed from CREA's previously predicted sales increase of 6.1 per cent to 536,400 units this year. This represents a new record for annual sales.

Former CREB® president Alan Tennant recalls 1998 as one with few challenges

Alan Tennant summarizes Calgary's resale residential housing market in 1998 in one word: stable.

"I recall doing monthly statistic releases throughout the year, and trying to find new ways to state 'stable,'" said Tennant, who was CREB®'s president that year. "I remember [the market] now more fondly than I did at the time. Back then, it seemed almost boring."

Despite a challenging year, 1995 CREB® president Wayne McAlister chose to focus on the silver linings

A self-described "eternal optimist," Wayne McAlister still couldn't be blamed for looking back at 1995 with some degree of pessimism.

After all, as CREB®'s president that year, he oversaw Calgary's housing industry at a time when employment uncertainty had waned for years, resulting in weak consumer confidence and a painfully slow market.

"There was a downturn in the early '90s, with oil down – dramatically low – and the whole economy was feeling the pinch," he said. "(By 1995), we were still experiencing an economic downturn. There was some good, some bad that year."