CMHC change will allow buyers to use more rental revenue as qualifying income

A rule change from Canada's Crown housing corporation may provide more fuel for Calgary's long-running debate on secondary suites.

Set to take effect Sept. 28, the change will allow homeowners to count 100 per cent of rental income from legal secondary suites as qualifying income applying for a mortgage.

Up from the current level of 50 per cent, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said the changes were made after a review of the corporation's policy for treatment of rental income.

"It appears as though CMHC is making these changes to assist with affordable housing," said Nolan Matthias, broker at Calgary's Mortgage360.

Housing demand expected to weaken

Mike Dunn moved to Calgary from Edmonton in July. He'd been thinking for a while about relocating, but when a friend offered him an affordable place to stay, he decided to take the plunge.

"It was like walking into a hurricane, to land here during Stampede, but it was good," he said with a laugh. "It seems like a place where if you work hard, you can pull off a decent living."

Dunn's not the first to switch area codes – and he won't be the last.

But he does represent a smaller number, as net migration — the difference between the number of people who have moved to Calgary, compared to the number who have moved away from the city — is at its lowest since 2011.

Supply gain in apartment sector threatens to impact price

Declines in residential housing sales activity eased in July, creating, when combined with stable inventory levels, no change to the month-over-month price.

Year-over-year sales fell by 14 per cent to 1,995 units in July, compared to a 17.8 per cent decrease the previous month. Despite the decline, sales activity during the month was consistent with the 10-year average.

While sales decline eased, so too did the decline in new listings, causing the unadjusted sales-to-new listings ratio to edge down to 67 per cent in July and months of supply to increase to 2.53 months.

Several factors contributing to more favourable conditions

Calgary's rental market is emerging as an early winner this year as the result of improved vacancy rates, added inventory and a more conservative appetite among buyers in the resale housing sector.

CREB®'s mid-year forecast update, released earlier this week, notes more choice and less upward pressure on rents has, and will continue to, impact the resale market as more consumers choose to keep renting.

An April report from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) showed two-bedroom apartment and row vacancy rates rose to 3.6 per cent in 2015 – the highest level since 2010 – from 1.5 per cent the year prior.

Several reports have sounded the alarm our real estate market is grossly overvalued, but industry watchers contend Calgary isn't poised for the big crash some are forecasting

Reports suggesting Calgary's housing market is over-valued, supported by recent price corrections, are missing many of the obvious indicators saying otherwise, say experts.

The metrics used to measure affordability simply do not back up the argument that Calgary's real estate market is highly overvalued and ready for a precipitous drop in home values, said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with Economic Research BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

"One of the (metrics) we look at is the average mortgage payment as a share of income, and right now that's a little bit above the long-run norm of 27 per cent at about 29 per cent," he said.

Outside factors will impact housing market through 2016

With the sun in Calgary rising and falling relative to the price of a barrel, it should be no surprise that the city's real estate market will continue to be impacted by economic realities beyond its control, say housing analysts.

Following a first half that can best be described as turbulent, the remainder of 2015 looks to bring more of the same for the city's housing market, with CREB®'s mid-year forecast update suggesting decreases across the board, including moderate price contraction.

"Further job losses are expected in the second half of the year," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"These employment changes, combined with overall weakness and slower-than-anticipated recovery of oil prices, are expected to keep housing demand relatively weak for the rest of 2015.

Roller-coaster ride to start 2015 ended with more balanced conditions

The arrival of 2015 was bound to signal a change of pace for Calgary's resale real estate industry, which had just wrapped a bow around a banner 2014.

In fact, with oil prices showing signs of deteriorating toward the end of 2014, December's four per cent sales decline – following 11 consecutive months of sales increases –was really a sign of things to come.

"Changes in the economic climate are expected to cool housing market conditions in 2015, and December activity may be the first indication of this shift," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie at the time.

That change came early and it came swift, with sales falling by more than 30 per cent in January to five-year lows even though new listings maintained their upward momentum by increasing by 37 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Dissecting the detached category

Sales activity declines in Calgary's detached resale housing segment over the first half of 2015 resembled that posted during the global economic crisis in 2009, according to CREB®'s mid-year forecast update.

Yet experts warn aggregate prices in Calgary's largest housing segment, which have started to fall, are being skewed by higher-priced markets, which experienced a more dramatic drop during the first half of the year.

"This year, we have seen sales decline in all price ranges. However, the decline in the luxury home market has been larger compared to lower-priced homes," said Richard Cho, principal of market analysis for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Detached sales totaled 6,203 units, a 25 per cent decline relative to the previous year, noted CREB®.

Today, CREB® unveiled its 2015 mid-year forecast update that indicated the Calgary regional resale housing market is in for a turbulent ride over the second half of the year as some economic realities set in.

Here are five takeaways from the 24-page document:

Not just a drop in the bucket
CREB®, citing a number of economists, warns that the broader effects of oil price shocks have yet to be fully realized in both the energy and non-energy sectors. Oil prices are expected to average $55 US per barrel, which is nearly 13 per cent lower than expectations from the end of 2014. What that means is all sectors, including housing, will likely face more downward pressure heading into 2016.

Weaker resale demand
Despite more favourable lending rates, housing demand will be weaker than we've have become used to. CREB® attributes that to further job losses expected this fall, rising unemployment levels and weaker migration numbers to the city. Overall, sales activity in the city is forecasted to decline by 22 per cent to 19,798 units in 2015 and prices will contract by 0.2 per cent.