Reading between the lines

Indicators suggests Calgary's housing market might be evening out

New housing market statistics are reinforcing the emergence of so-called balanced conditions in Calgary.

In its monthly stats package for June, CREB® noted key segments of the local market are seeing increased price stabilization brought upon by more moderate sales declines and listing increases.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie singled out last month's detached sector, which saw new listings decline at a faster rate than sales (five and 3.7 per cent, respectively) for only the second time in the past 12 months – the last time coming in January. As a result, the sector's benchmark price totaled $502,400, which was 0.4 per cent higher than May, yet still 3.4 per cent lower than last year's levels.

CREB® report singles out changing conditions in apartment sector

Buyer's conditions in the apartment sector are contributing to a continued shift in Calgary's resale residential housing market, which experienced a second consecutive month of price declines in October, according to CREB®.

The local housing agency noted that while overall, new listings in the city did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions, the biggest shift continued to occur in the apartment sector.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie noted months of supply in that sector have gone from a low of three months in June to nearly six months in October.

Sales activity remains well below long-term averages  

Elevated inventory levels in October contributed to a second consecutive month of price declines in Calgary's resale residential housing market.

Benchmark prices declined 0.7 per cent from the previous month, and 1.2 per cent from the same time last year, to $453,100.

"Persistent weakness in the overall economy continued to impact housing demand in Calgary as October sales were nearly 16 per cent below long-term averages," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "In addition, new listings did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions."

Inventories rise as sales activity softens further

Following four months of relative stability, unadjusted benchmark prices eased as expected in September to $456,100, a 0.26 per cent decline compared with last year.

Most of this aggregate moderation was due to price declines in the apartment sector brought on by higher-than-average inventory levels.

"Overall sales activity relative to new listings caused a softening in absorption rates, which resulted in inventory gains and ultimately placed moderate downward pressure on pricing," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Calgary inventory levels ease

Despite the 18 per cent year-over-year decline in June home sales, for a total of 2,183 units, transaction levels remain only five per cent below the 10 year average for June and three per cent above levels over the past five years.

"We've seen less concern from consumers lately," said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. "One of the main reasons is that we haven't seen the worst case scenarios play out in the energy and housing sectors.

"Consumers who were waiting for wide-spread price declines have been surprised to see that it just hasn't happened yet, and so they've decided to take advantage of the improved selection and lower lending rates.

Calgary, Nov. 1, 2013 –

Residential sales activity totaled 1,953 units in October, an 18 per cent rise over 2012 and pushing year-to-date volume increases to just over 10 per cent.

However, on a year-to-date basis, city wide sales remain far below transactions levels recorded throughout 2005 – 2007.

Calgary, Oct. 1, 2013 – City of Calgary residential sales totaled 1,923 units in September, 19 per cent higher than last year and 14 per cent higher than long-term averages for the month.

While sales activity over the past three months has been above long-term trends, it was less so in September than in July and August.

The temperatures around Calgary might be getting chillier, but the numbers coming out of the city's real estate industry are anything but.

Emphasized by recent numbers that show population growth in Alberta is nearly triple the Canadian average, MLS® sales in the city were up by nearly 20 per cent from a year ago.

Seller's market conditions persist, pushing up prices

Calgary, Sept. 3, 2013 – Residential sales within city limits totaled 2,196 units, an 27.5 per cent increase over 2012 and 8.7 per cent on a year-to-date basis.

The level of transactions was well above long-term trends for the month, mostly due to improved activity in the single-family sector. However, on a year-to-date basis, activity is only slightly higher than expectations.