Calgary's industrial sector showing signs of strain

Calgary's industrial market continues to hiccup along in a weakened economy as vacancy rates have risen over each of the last four quarters and are likely heading toward the bottom of the cycle, said a second-quarter market report by Cushman & Wakefield.

"One positive is that the amount of space under construction has been cut substantially; helping to prevent future jumps in the vacancy rate," read the report.

City's evolving arts scene a good news story for real estate

Recent high-profile additions to Calgary's cultural scene stand to benefit the city's real estate market in a big way, say experts.

New facilities such as Studio Bell's National Music Centre and the Calgary Film Centre will go a long way toward helping the city shake off its stodgy Cowtown image, said Tom Keenan, a professor at the University of Calgary's Faculty of Environmental Design.

"Interesting people, things to do, cultural amenities like the opera – these all play a role in making a city appealing to live in," he said.

Prices exhibit resilience, record biggest gain since 2006

National home sales declined for a third consecutive month in July, according to statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 1.3 per cent month-over-month in July 2016. With similar monthly declines having been posted in May and June, national sales activity in July came in 3.9 per cent below the record set in April 2016. (Chart A)

Sales activity was down from the previous month in slightly more than half of all markets in July, led by Greater Vancouver and B.C.'s Fraser Valley. Transactions in these two markets peaked in February of this year, and have since then dropped by 21.5 and 28.8 percent respectively.

Higher-priced home segment show some staying power

Calgary's luxury housing sector has weathered the current economic storm better than others so far, with sales of properties over $1 million up slightly during the first six months of 2016.

"Sales have increased from 347 to 371 homes and condos combined," said CREB chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie, cautioning, "it's not a big change."

Lurie credited the slight uptick in luxury sales to a decrease in many of these properties' asking prices.

Lower-class spaces feeling brunt of energy downturn

Vacancy rates in Calgary's downtown office market have hit historic highs in 2016, and commercial real estate experts are forecasting further declines moving forward.

According to a second-quarter market report by Colliers International in Calgary, the overall vacancy rate in the core has jumped to more than 22 per cent from 20.5 per cent the previous quarter – the equivalent of 618,716 square feet of office space.

Vacancy rates between classes varied, but were steepest in the B-class at 31.8 per cent and C-class at 28.1 per cent. AA- and A-class vacancies were also up from the previous quarter at 17.6 and 18.9 per cent, respectively.

Satellite communities showing similar signs of strain; officials still optimistic

Feeling the pinch of a slowing economy, smaller satellite community housing markets have mirrored a downward drift in prices compared with Calgary but continue to be an attractive draw for buyers.

Depending on the region, CREB®'s mid-year forecast update has shown only a slight reduction in sales compared to long-term trends and actual growth in other outlaying districts.

Still buzzing with plenty of activity in new-home construction, Airdrie sales activity slowed in 2016 but hasn't dropped compared to five-year averages. A continual inventory build-up has kept new listings on pace with the past three years for Airdrie, which experienced a 5.37 per cent population growth since last summer and has recently surpassed 60,000 residents.

Fewer newcomers will mean weaker housing demand, lower prices, say experts

Fewer newcomers to our city will translate into weaker housing demand and lower housing prices for the foreseeable future, say housing experts.

According to the City of Calgary's 2016 census released last month, more than 6,500 people left the city between April 2016 and April 2015. The 4,256 population jump to 1.235 million was primarily attributed to an increase of births versus deaths.

"Not surprisingly, the overall impact of lower population growth in Calgary will weigh on its real estate market," said ATB Financial economist Nick Ford. "Housing prices may continue to slide lower in all areas of the city as a result of declining demand.

Over-supply, fewer newcomers behind increasing vacancy rates

Vacancy rates in Calgary have spiked so far this year and are expected to rise for the foreseeable future, say industry insiders.

And with few signs of significant changes in the economy on the horizon, renters will enjoy plenty of choice and price flexibility, while landlords will need to get aggressive.

"Vacancy started rising pretty rapidly after the spring of last year and it's still been rising," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association, which has about 850 members, representing between 65,000 and 70,000 rental units. There are more than 700 landlords in the association.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.