CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Signs of economic hardship started to reveal themselves by the end of 2014, recalled then-CREB® president Bill Kirk 

While the true severity of the economic slump currently dominating headlines had yet to been felt in 2014, Bill Kirk said the writing was already on the wall by the end of his tenure as CREB® president.

Oil production in the Middle East had just started to ramp up, prices for a barrel had started to fall and jobs in Calgary were suddenly in question, he recalled.

"By the end of 2014, there was talk of an oil glut," said Kirk. "We knew there would be fallout ... (but) no one knew what would happen.

"We were all surprised at how slowly through 2015 the bad news hit."

Former CREB® president Kevin Clark recalls robust activity in 2006 created new set of challenges

To an outsider today, 2006 was an enviable year for real estate in Calgary. Nine to 10 offers on a house was commonplace, sales activity hit an all-time high with 26,975 transactions and prices skyrocketed year over year by more than 40 per cent to $336,408.

But for Kevin Clark, who was CREB® president that year, he doesn't long for those days.

Clark describes the market in 2006 as volatile. He recalls Calgary's housing industry that year as one overrun with inventory fluctuations that came with their own set of challenges.

Former CREB® president Becky Walters remembers how communities rallied in following natural disaster in 2013

Becky Walters remembers 2013 like most Calgarians do – one equally fraught with harrowing tales of devastation and inspiring stories of community spirit following a historic flood that left many communities underwater.

In June 2013, Alberta experienced heavy rainfall that sparked 32 states of local emergency in communities throughout southern Alberta and resulted in billions of dollars in insurable damages.

"It was something that affected the whole city, of course," said Walters, who, six months earlier, had become president of CREB®.

Resiliency in the detached and semi-detached markets temper price fluctuations

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect, reported CREB® in its June housing summary. (Click here for the full report.)

CREB® partly attributed June's stats to resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

"The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "While this is welcomed news for sellers, it's very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve."

Sellers' conditions in B.C., buyers' in Saskatchewan

A new report from the Conference Board of Canada says balanced conditions in Calgary's resale housing market are expected to create price gains in the coming months.

In its June Metro Resale Snapshot, the organization anticipates the city's MLS® price will increase between zero and 2.9 per cent over the short term. In May, the house price in Calgary was $465,840, up 1.1 per cent from April and 2.3 per cent from a year ago.

Study author Robin Wiebe classified Calgary's housing market as balanced, noting sales volumes in May increased by 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, while listings declined by 1.9 per cent.

Former CREB® president Ron Stanners recalls local housing industry slows down slightly in 2007 after break-neck speed years prior

Over the past five decades, Calgary's real estate industry has been bare to it all – from double-digit interest rates to densification. As part of an ongoing series, CREB®Now continues to weave together an incredible narrative of how the local housing industry has evolved through the unique perspectives of CREB®'s 30 remaining past presidents.

Following two "absolutely crazy" years in Calgary's real estate market, Ron Stanners almost looked forward to the slightly slower pace when he became CREB® president in 2007.

"It was a good year, but it was not the boom of the years before," he said.

"The first half of the year had good, solid sales. Then, sales did slowdown in the latter half. That's normal, but they slowed more than normal."

Former CREB® president Patti Beaudry recalls city's fast pace in 1997

Former CREB® president Patti Beaudry recalls 1997 as a bright spot in Calgary's real estate history, in which resale housing activity and prices hit then peak levels and the city's population experienced a newfound surge.

The economy was vibrant, with new jobs bringing newcomers to the city by planes, trains and automobiles, recalled the 35-year real estate veteran, who guided the organization's board of directors through its boom year. By year's end, the city's population gained 3.3 per cent to 934,300 compared to 2.4 per cent growth the year prior. Three years later, it hit the once-mythical one-million mark.

Calgary's housing market at the time illustrated the impact of this new wave of new residents. Sales in the resale residential sector jumped more than 20 per cent to 18,423, while prices surged by more than six per cent to $146,788, according to CREB®.

CREB® chief economist walks through often-overlooked housing statistics

Months of supply is a statistic that often gets lost in today's housing market, yet it is an important indicator of the relationship between supply and demand, says CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"It gives us one indication of balance in the market," she said of months of supply, which is the amount of time it would take to sell current inventory.

"If the number is really high – so you have a higher level of months-of-supply – that essentially just means that there's more supply than demand in the market and it generally correlates with declining prices in the market.

Ellyn Mendham credits teaching background to industry leadership

Ellyn Mendham describes her entry into real estate as a "fluke."

Originally an elementary school teacher in Philadelphia, then Nova Scotia, Mendham's credentials did not immediately transfer when she moved to Alberta.

"I needed to work and produce an income, and at the time I thought I would go back to teaching later," said Mendham. "By fluke, I got into real estate."

But after making her first sale – a home that went for $42,000 in 1975 – she quickly realized she loved the industry.