Prices steady, but struggles in Alberta economy weigh on housing

Changes to the lending industry and a challenging economic recovery are weighing on sales activity in Calgary's housing market.

Supply levels have not adjusted to the weaker demand environment, and that is preventing price recovery.

"Slower sales do not come as a surprise, given the economy has not yet improved enough to offset the impact of changes in the lending industry," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"While the rising inventories are being monitored, prices have remained relatively flat as gains in some areas of the city have been offset by declines in other areas."

Inventory increases and sales drop in September, but overall sales for the year remain higher than last year

Strong gains in the first half of 2017 have put Calgary year-to-date sales at seven per cent above last years' levels and 11 per cent below long-term averages, but challenges remain with easing sales and rising new listings.

Inventories rose across all property types to 6,861 units, while both apartment- and attached-style properties saw the highest inventory on record for the month of September.

Surrounding housing market to follow Calgary's lead in 2017 after challenging conditions in 2016

Slow stabilization in Calgary's housing market in 2017 is expected to create similar momentum for satellite communities such as Okotoks, Cochrane, Airdrie and Chestermere, say local officials on the heels of CREB® releasing its 2017 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

According to the report, Chestermere in Rocky View region experienced a widening gap between sales and new listings during 2016, putting downward pressure on benchmark prices – notably detached homes, which dropped 2.5 per cent from 2015 to $490,808.

What you should know about the year ahead for Calgary's housing market

CREB® has released its annual economic outlook and regional housing forecast. But what does it all mean? CREB®Now takes readers through the numbers.

18,335
After posting successive sales declines in 2014 (25,552), 2015 (18,839) and 2016 (17,809), CREB® is forecasting MLS® activity in Calgary to rebound slightly in 2017. Citywide sales are expected to total 18,335 units, a three per cent gain over 2016, but 12 per cent below long-term averages. By category, detached sales are predicted to hit 11,550 in 2016, while attached and apartment sales will reach 4,002 and 2,783, respectively.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie has seen a bit of everything in 2016. From buyers' conditions to migrational changes, Calgary's housing market has taken industry observers like herself on a wild ride over the past 12 months.

CREB®Now recently had the chance to sit down with Lurie and reflect on 2016. Here's what she had to say:

CREB®Now: Did 2016 play out the way you expected?

Few surprises, but still highlights for Calgary's housing market this past year, say experts

In a year of sales declines, price adjustments and mortgage rule changes, the one constant for Calgary's housing market in 2016 was the number of challenges it faced as the result of soft economic conditions, say industry observers.

Yet officials also maintain challenges for some created opportunities for others. And, perhaps more importantly, there is renewed optimism heading into 2017 thanks to improving numbers during the second half of this year and a series of large energy infrastructure announcements.

Detached prices dip below $500,000 for first time since 2014

Coming off a month of stronger sales activity, November's resale residential housing market returned to previous trends, according to CREB®.

In its November housing summary released Dec. 1, year-over-year monthly sales totaled 1,227 units, which is nearly three per cent lower than last year and 17 per cent below long-term averages.

"November was the first full month with CMHC's new lending rules in effect," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "As suspected, the gains in last month's sales were temporary. Stringent conditions for borrowers are converging with the current economic climate and weighing on demand."

Former CREB® president Bob Jablonski recalls 2012 as the year it started to turn around

Bob Jablonski doesn't have to look back too far to remember the last time Calgary's economy was booming.

During his year as CREB® president in 2012, the city was running at a full sprint due to good fortunes in the oil patch. Completion of the new West LRT, The Bow and Peace Bridge were just three of the many major initiatives that came to fruition in Calgary that year, noted Jablonski, who remembered, "the city was getting big and busy."

For many, particularly those in the real estate sector, the good news was overdue. Calgary's housing market had slumped since the 2008 financial crisis, not recovering at the same pace as other Canadian cities.

CREB® points to mortgage rule changes as motivator

For the first time in two years, resale residential housing sales activity in October resembled normal levels, according to a new report.

City-wide sales totaled 1,644 units, which is an increase of nearly 16 per cent over last year, reported CREB® in its monthly housing summary.

"The shift in sales activity this month is likely related to the new mortgage rule changes, inventory gains in the lower price ranges and further price adjustments," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Former CREB® president Bonnie Wegerich remembered challenges, successes in 2009

Bonnie Wegerich can sum up her time as CREB®'s president in 2009 with one word: recovery.

After residential resale housing prices in Calgary reached record highs in 2007, an economic downturn the following year caused prices to drop and sales to halt – a spillover effect that went well into Wegerich's year at the helm.

"In January, we had more sales than in December, and we were very excited about that. That's where we went from. Every month was getting better than it was," remembered Wegerich, a longtime real estate professional who worked and lived in Airdrie.