CREB^® has released its 2022 housing market forecast for Calgary and surrounding areas.

According to the report, housing market activity in 2022 is expected to moderate relative to record levels of activity in 2021, while remaining stronger than historical levels.

With December sales of 1,199, this is the highest December total since 2007.

"Housing demand over the second half of 2020 was far stronger than anticipated and nearly offset the initial impact caused by the shutdowns in spring," said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

CREB^®'s annual Forecast real estate event returns on Jan. 26, 2021 with an all-new virtual format. So, grab your ticket, put on your headset, and get ready to immerse yourself in a one-of-a-kind real estate experience.

Third-quarter activity was far better than original expectations, as sales activity in the city improved by nearly 12 per cent over last year's levels.

Some of the shift in the third quarter reflects activity that likely would have occurred in the second quarter. The housing market also benefited from easing lending rates and previous price declines. Gains were driven by all property types except apartment condominiums.

The Bank of Canada has maintained its overnight rate target at 0.25 per cent, the effective lower bound, and released its updated outlook for the economy and inflation.

Alan Tennant - CREB® CEO

There is nothing to indicate a major shift in the current
trajectory. I see cautious optimism among the development sector – they are not overbuilding in any sector – and that is a healthy sign. It comes down to consumer confidence. We have two elections behind us, which could have been destabilizing but weren't.

December sales activity rises again, but so does supply

Sales activity for all product types improved in December and pushed monthly sales to long-term averages for the second month in a row.

However, new listings also rose, keeping inventory elevated compared to typical levels for December. With more supply remaining compared to sales, benchmark prices edged down for the fifth consecutive month.

CREB® forecasts a process of recovery for the remainder of 2017

The first-half of 2017 marked a shift in Alberta's economy from recession to recovery, with conditions supporting stability rather than expansion.

"Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017."

Report notes mortgage lending rule changes could spell trouble for city's housing market

Recent changes by the federal government to mortgage lending rules will likely serve as headwinds for the city's recovering real estate market in the coming year, said CREB® in its 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Forecast.

Since 2008, the federal government has been tightening mortgage lending rules.