Oct. 02, 2019 | CREBNow
September 2019: Shifting to stability
For the third consecutive month, sales activity improved over last year's figures, and year-over-year new listings and inventories eased. This trend will help support more stability in the housing market.
"Price declines have likely brought some buyers back into the market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, noting improvements in the market continue to be driven by homes priced below $500,000.
In the condominium apartment market, sales improved by 16 per cent this month. This represents the segment's best September since 2015. Year-to-date growth in both the attached and apartment sector were enough to offset the modest decline in the detached sector resulting in year-to-date sales growth of nearly one per cent in the city.
Despite improving sales and reductions in inventory, the overall market remains oversupplied. This continues to weigh on prices.
"While housing demand is modestly improving, sales activity remains relatively weak," said Lurie. "The market is moving toward more stable conditions, but this is mostly related to supply adjustments in the city."
September inventory levels are still elevated at 6,889 units, but this figure represents a decline of 13 per cent compared to last year. The months of supply in the Calgary market currently sits at five months. These conditions continue to favour the buyer, but not to the same degree seen at this time last year.
September's citywide unadjusted benchmark price of $424,900 is two per cent lower than last year's levels.
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Improvements in sales over the past three months were not enough to offset pullbacks that occurred earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales remain nearly one per cent lower than last year's levels. Despite citywide declines, sales improved in both the North West and South districts, thanks to significant gains in sales of homes priced below $500,000.
The months of supply remains elevated at over four months, although this is an improvement compared to the same time last year.
Benchmark prices in September ranged from a year-over-year decline of more than four per cent in the South district to general stability in the North East, North and West districts.
Sales improved by 16 per cent this month, making it the best September recorded in the past three years. Despite recent improvements in sales, year-to-date levels remain stable compared to last year, but well below longer-term trends.
Condominium apartment sales were varied across the city. Significant growth was reported in the North and South East districts. Both districts have seen significant new-home development which could be influencing resale activity.
Oversupply continues to weigh on prices in this segment, as unadjusted prices remain 17 per cent below 2014 highs.
Sales increases for both semi-detached and row product have improved year-to-date attached sales by more than five per cent compared to last year. It is the only product type that has recorded significant gains year-over-year.
New listings continue to ease, reducing inventory and the months of supply.
Despite some annual reductions in the months of supply, buyers' market conditions persist and prices continue to ease. Year-to-date benchmark price declines ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the City Centre to a low of three per cent in the North East.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Conditions in the resale market continue to show signs of growth. Sales activity improved in September, pushing year-to-date sales up by nearly three per cent. New listings eased, which helped reduce inventory in the market.
The market remains slightly oversupplied, but the months of supply is edging down from last year's high levels. This is supporting more stability in monthly price movements. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price was nearly two per cent lower than last year's levels.
Sales in the area continue to improve and year-to-date levels remain the third-highest on record. The area faces fewer challenges with demand than the Calgary market, but elevated inventories continue to weigh on prices.
Inventories are starting to trend down. If this continues, the market should move into more balanced conditions and, eventually, support some price stability.
Sales activity continues to recover from the low levels recorded last year. Improving sales and easing new listings are causing year-over-year inventory declines and reducing oversupply in the market.
The market has been trending into balanced conditions, but prices have been slow to react. Year-to-date benchmark prices remain just over four per cent lower than last year's levels.
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