Satellite communities showing similar signs of strain; officials still optimistic

Feeling the pinch of a slowing economy, smaller satellite community housing markets have mirrored a downward drift in prices compared with Calgary but continue to be an attractive draw for buyers.

Depending on the region, CREB®'s mid-year forecast update has shown only a slight reduction in sales compared to long-term trends and actual growth in other outlaying districts.

Still buzzing with plenty of activity in new-home construction, Airdrie sales activity slowed in 2016 but hasn't dropped compared to five-year averages. A continual inventory build-up has kept new listings on pace with the past three years for Airdrie, which experienced a 5.37 per cent population growth since last summer and has recently surpassed 60,000 residents.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.

Former CREB® president Marilyn Jones revelled in changing Calgary market

For much of her career, former CREB® president Marilyn Jones focused on helping clients from across Canada relocate to Calgary and find a house.

She liked the pressure – often times people had just a few days to look at houses in a new city, make a major decision and submit an offer – and was comfortable managing the many demands that needed to be juggled.

Those same skills came in handy when Jones became CREB® president in 2005.

Former CREB® president John Fraser recalled new sense of hope in 1990 after decade of challenges

A fresh start: that's how many viewed 1990, recalled then-CREB® president John Fraser.

"We had just come out of an extremely difficult period," he said, referencing a decade defined by the National Energy Program, soaring interest rates and growing unemployment in the province.

"In about the mid '80s, things started to improve. And by about 1990, if you can believe it, almost 10 years later, we were almost back to where we were in 1981 in terms of house prices."

Former CREB® president Kevin Clark recalls robust activity in 2006 created new set of challenges

To an outsider today, 2006 was an enviable year for real estate in Calgary. Nine to 10 offers on a house was commonplace, sales activity hit an all-time high with 26,975 transactions and prices skyrocketed year over year by more than 40 per cent to $336,408.

But for Kevin Clark, who was CREB® president that year, he doesn't long for those days.

Clark describes the market in 2006 as volatile. He recalls Calgary's housing industry that year as one overrun with inventory fluctuations that came with their own set of challenges.

Former CREB® president Becky Walters remembers how communities rallied in following natural disaster in 2013

Becky Walters remembers 2013 like most Calgarians do – one equally fraught with harrowing tales of devastation and inspiring stories of community spirit following a historic flood that left many communities underwater.

In June 2013, Alberta experienced heavy rainfall that sparked 32 states of local emergency in communities throughout southern Alberta and resulted in billions of dollars in insurable damages.

"It was something that affected the whole city, of course," said Walters, who, six months earlier, had become president of CREB®.

Former CREB® president Ron Stanners recalls local housing industry slows down slightly in 2007 after break-neck speed years prior

Over the past five decades, Calgary's real estate industry has been bare to it all – from double-digit interest rates to densification. As part of an ongoing series, CREB®Now continues to weave together an incredible narrative of how the local housing industry has evolved through the unique perspectives of CREB®'s 30 remaining past presidents.

Following two "absolutely crazy" years in Calgary's real estate market, Ron Stanners almost looked forward to the slightly slower pace when he became CREB® president in 2007.

"It was a good year, but it was not the boom of the years before," he said.

"The first half of the year had good, solid sales. Then, sales did slowdown in the latter half. That's normal, but they slowed more than normal."

Housing professionals say upscale communities such as Heritage Pointe showing staying power

The lure of the luxury lifestyle is still drawing homebuyers to exclusive communities in and around Calgary despite some challenges in the local economy, say industry professionals.

Albi Homes community manager Amy Koehn notes Artesia in Heritage Point south of the city, for example, "is one of our busiest communities. It's very consistent and there's a lot of traction with the product here."

Koehn cites the community's lower density and larger lot sizes as motivators to buy in upscale communities such as Heritage Pointe.

Former CREB® president Patti Beaudry recalls city's fast pace in 1997

Former CREB® president Patti Beaudry recalls 1997 as a bright spot in Calgary's real estate history, in which resale housing activity and prices hit then peak levels and the city's population experienced a newfound surge.

The economy was vibrant, with new jobs bringing newcomers to the city by planes, trains and automobiles, recalled the 35-year real estate veteran, who guided the organization's board of directors through its boom year. By year's end, the city's population gained 3.3 per cent to 934,300 compared to 2.4 per cent growth the year prior. Three years later, it hit the once-mythical one-million mark.

Calgary's housing market at the time illustrated the impact of this new wave of new residents. Sales in the resale residential sector jumped more than 20 per cent to 18,423, while prices surged by more than six per cent to $146,788, according to CREB®.

Reality starting to sink in, says board president

Calgarians looking to sell their homes are slowly coming to the realization that it's a buyers' market and are beginning to manage their price expectations, says CREB® president Cliff Stevenson.

"I think there's still something to the fact that sellers are still adjusting to this – to the fact the pendulum has definitely swung in the buyers' favour. I think you've got some sellers that are obviously taking a bit longer to figure this out than others," said Stevenson, noting CREB® officially labelled it a buyers' market in November 2015 after three consecutive months of inventory increases.