How economic indicators actually drive the housing market

What do unemployment, migration and oil prices have in common? Apart from being touchy subjects at a party, they all influence the Calgary housing market to some extent. Understanding how and why that happens could provide an advantage when planning a home sale or purchase.

"In many cases the impact is indirect," said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for CREB®.

One part of that impact relates to demand.

What you should know about the year ahead for Calgary's housing market

CREB® has released its annual economic outlook and regional housing forecast. But what does it all mean? CREB®Now takes readers through the numbers.

18,335
After posting successive sales declines in 2014 (25,552), 2015 (18,839) and 2016 (17,809), CREB® is forecasting MLS® activity in Calgary to rebound slightly in 2017. Citywide sales are expected to total 18,335 units, a three per cent gain over 2016, but 12 per cent below long-term averages. By category, detached sales are predicted to hit 11,550 in 2016, while attached and apartment sales will reach 4,002 and 2,783, respectively.

Calgary housing market to see increased stability, signs of change in 2017: CREB®

The worst might be over for Calgary's housing market, according to CREB®, which is forecasting transitional conditions throughout this year on the back of renewed optimism in the oil patch.

The forecast, captured in the real estate organization's 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Forecast report, comes after more than two years of recessionary conditions that have been manifested by sales and price declines in virtually every corner of the local market.

Former CREB® president Kent Lyle remembers impacts of National Energy Program like it was yesterday

It's perhaps the most contentious three words in Alberta's history: National Energy Program.

The early 1980s in the province are synonymous with the controversial federal initiative, which redistributed Alberta's oil wealth and, in turn, lead to a regional recession that few have since forgotten.

Chris Bolt recalls big changes during time as CREB® president in 1999

The year was 1999. Y2K fears gripped society, the price of oil started to rebound and construction on a controversial new building for CREB® finally got underway.

In other words, it was just another day for Chris Bolt, who, today, looks back at his presidency for the REALTOR® organization as one of his greatest career accomplishments.

But how the native of London ended up leading the province's largest real estate organization during a year of transition is even more interesting.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Former CREB® president John Fraser recalled new sense of hope in 1990 after decade of challenges

A fresh start: that's how many viewed 1990, recalled then-CREB® president John Fraser.

"We had just come out of an extremely difficult period," he said, referencing a decade defined by the National Energy Program, soaring interest rates and growing unemployment in the province.

"In about the mid '80s, things started to improve. And by about 1990, if you can believe it, almost 10 years later, we were almost back to where we were in 1981 in terms of house prices."

Weak net migration expected to impact Calgary's housing market

Population growth in Calgary will moderate moving forward and contribute to a decline in housing demand, according to a market brief issued earlier this month by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

In the release, the national housing agency noted net migration is expected to remain relatively weak over the next two years, which will have a trickle-down effect on the local real estate market.

CREB®Now breaks down five things you need to know about how population will impact housing demand in Calgary this year and next.

Slow sales activity and inventory gains place downward pressure on prices

Calgary's housing market is starting 2016 firmly in buyers' market territory, much the same as last year ended, according to CREB®'s monthly housing summary for January.

"The recent slide in energy prices has raised concerns about near-term recovery prospects for the city," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "Energy market uncertainty and a soft labour market are weighing on many aspects of our economy, including the housing sector."

City wide, January sales totaled 763 units, 13 per cent below last year and 43 per cent below long-term averages. While new listings declined by 16 per cent compared to January 2015, the number of new listings far outpaced the sales, causing inventory gains. January's city wide months of supply levels rose above six months.

Global glut for oil means Alberta economy is expected to struggle in 2016 – and Calgary's housing market along with it

Alberta's energy sector has only felt the tip of the blade, say experts, who anticipate the worse is still to come.

"Unfortunately, the story is not positive – and it's not over for Calgary by any stretch of the imagination," said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

"I think that 2015 was just the pre-show, and we're going to see most of the damage, at least, in the first of half of 2016."